China wants to talk rather than fighting a war. Big US corps, although find Chinese competition increasingly hard to handle, still would rather talk than fight. The Wall Street wants to talk rather than fight too for sure.
It is normal American people that supports the trade war.
They hate big corps who squeeze their salaries, hate the Wall Street who robbed their wealth with financial games, and hate China for stealing their jobs advantages.
The trade war is essentially rooted on the fact that many normal American people are feeling hopeless economically. A trade war certainly won’t increase productivity or resolve structural economic issues, but at least can win Trump some votes.
At least can channel some anger.
This is the real reason that Trump starts the Trade War – for 2020. Although it benefits no one in the long term.
Trump might lose some votes, but will win some more solid ones.
And power awaits. That is all but matters.
Hence, the root cause of trade war is the huge wealth gap and the bipolar society. If not resolved in time, collapsing is just a matter of time.
Pressuring or hurting China and other countries internationally is avoiding the real issues, and asking “Who will win?” is entirely the wrong question to focus.
Trade war is Trump performing for his votes, and as long as the votes grow, Trump does not care if the trade war is fake fighting or real hurting the economy.
Plus, US is a democratic country that is born to have two fighting parties. If there is no strong political leading force that can remove Trump, unit the two parties, coordinate the government and the central bank to implement MMT and help the poor, then US is doomed to fade eventually.
Populism+democracy is toxic.
And under such big picture, some Democrats still limit their sight only on the rights of minorities..
Anyways… what do I know..